setembro 13, 2011

Justificações Post-Hoc

"Humans are very good as seeing patterns, making connections, and coming up with explanations for phenomena. Almost anything can be explained in retrospect, and it only takes a couple of apparent connections to make such explanations seem compelling. That is actually the fatal flaw of such post-hoc reasoning – it can be used to explain anything. Therefore, the fact that someone can invent a post-hoc justification is not predictive that the explanation is actually true. In other words – we tend to be naively impressed with the fact that an explanation is available. We tend to assume that a phenomenon would not have an explanation, or alternative explanation, if that explanation were not true. We therefore find it satisfying, and therefore compelling, when such an explanation is available. However, the human capacity for invention and pattern seeking is profound. We can find an explanation for anything – and so the availability of such an explanation should not be compelling at all." - Juicy Post-Hoc Reasoning, Steven Novella

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